Key Metrics Every NFL Fan Should Understand

Introduction

While traditional metrics like yards and touchdowns are easy to understand, advanced metrics provide a deeper, more contextualized look at player and team performance. For fans who want to move beyond the box score, understanding these statistics is essential. They offer a more accurate picture of a player’s true value and a team’s overall efficiency.

1 to 10 Breakdown of Key Metrics

1. Expected Points Added (EPA): This is a foundational advanced metric. EPA measures the change in a team’s expected points from the start of a play to the end. The expected points value is determined by the down, distance, and field position. A positive EPA means the play increased the team’s chances of scoring, while a negative EPA means the opposite.
2. Total Quarterback Rating (QBR): Developed by ESPN, QBR is a comprehensive metric for quarterbacks. It uses EPA to evaluate every single play a QB is involved in, including passes, runs, sacks, scrambles, and penalties. It then adjusts the EPA for the difficulty of the play (e.g., a tight-window throw vs. a wide-open pass) and the quality of the opponent’s defense. The result is a score on a 0-100 scale, with 50 being an average performance.
3. Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A): This metric is a more accurate version of yards per pass attempt. It adjusts for touchdowns (adding a bonus of 20 yards), interceptions (subtracting 45 yards), and sack yards. It divides this total by the sum of passing attempts and sacks. Studies have shown that ANY/A has a strong correlation with winning.
4. Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE): This metric compares a quarterback’s actual completion percentage to their expected completion percentage on a given play. It uses factors like throw difficulty, receiver separation, and pressure to determine the expected rate. A high CPOE suggests a quarterback is completing throws at a higher rate than an average quarterback would in similar situations.
5. Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA): A metric by Football Outsiders, DVOA measures a team’s efficiency compared to the league average, adjusting for opponent and situation. It evaluates every play and determines its success based on down, distance, and field location. A positive DVOA is good for an offense or special teams unit, while a negative DVOA is good for a defense.
6. Success Rate: This is a simple but powerful metric that measures the percentage of plays that meet a certain threshold of success. A play is considered successful if it achieves at least 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.
7. Yards After Catch (YAC): This traditional metric is still important in advanced analysis. It measures the yards a receiver gains after catching the ball. In advanced metrics, YAC is often used in conjunction with other stats to understand how a quarterback and a receiver contribute to a play’s success.
8. Pressured vs. Clean Pocket Stats: Advanced statistics can break down a quarterback’s performance based on whether they are under pressure. By comparing a quarterback’s performance from a clean pocket to when they are pressured, analysts can better understand their ability to handle different game situations.
9. Time to Throw: This metric measures the average time a quarterback holds the ball before releasing it. It can be used to evaluate how quickly a quarterback makes decisions and how well an offensive line is holding up.
10. Tackles For Loss (TFL): This defensive metric measures how often a defender tackles a ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage on a run play. It is a good indicator of a defense’s ability to stop an offense before a play has a chance to develop.

Conclusion

These advanced metrics provide a more nuanced and accurate way for fans to evaluate NFL players and teams. By moving beyond traditional stats, you can gain a deeper appreciation for the strategic complexities of the game and better understand what makes a player or a team truly successful.

What Are Some Important NFL Advanced Statistics?

This video discusses important NFL advanced statistics like Expected Points Added, providing an overview of metrics that go beyond traditional stats.